Here in Wisconsin, the sun rises and sets on the Green Bay Packers. It has for years. On Mondays following a Packer win, everything seems better, right?
After seeing their postseason streak come to an end after nine seasons, the pressure will be on Coach Mike McCarthy to get back. And come the 2018 season, Green Bay will be facing a BIG uphill struggle. Let's take a look at why.
First and foremost, the toughest schedule in the NFL, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .539 -- and that includes facing five playoff teams (well, six if you count facing the Minnesota Vikings twice). Road games will be crucial tests with games at the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots as well as New York Jets, Washington Redskins and the three NFC North foes. Granted, the schedule also includes three first-year coaches (Chicago, Detroit, Arizona). But top to bottom, this is not a scheduled filled with "gimme" wins.
The rest of the NFC North teams are all in the top 10 for schedule strength: Detroit tied for second at .535, Chicago and Minnesota tied for eighth at .520. By comparison, the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles are tied for 19th at .492. Coming in dead last among the 32 teams? The Houston Texans at .453.
And the NFC North tests will be big, especially if Minnesota ever settles on a quarterback. At this writing, they have three free agents (Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater) and are kicking the tires on Kirk Cousins. With a solid defense (forgetting what Philly did to them) and solid weapons on offense, any of the four will be capable. Every year I think Detroit will be better than they turn out to be. Here's a club loaded with talent and consistently drafting high, but it never seems to turn up on the field. Perhaps a new coach will bring that out. Ditto for the Chicago Bears.
Will all that on the schedule, how will first-year GM Brian Gutekunst fill out the roster. He has the 14th pick in the NFL Draft among his whopping 12 picks. Gutekunst vows to be more aggressive than Ted Thompson -- wouldn't take much -- when it comes to the free agent market. However, he may be a bit hamstrung with only $15.4 million in cap space available AND a slew of their own free agents to satisfy. There may be a bunch of Packer free agents asked to restructure their contracts: wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, right tackle Bryan Bulaga, outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry.
Of that group, I would definitely look at Nelson and Matthews to resign with more cap-friendly/incentive-laden numbers. Might even toss Cobb into that mix as well.
And don't forget the talk of extending the contract of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has two years left on his current deal (at $20 million a year, a real steal). Once guys like Cousins and Drew Brees sign, you can bet A-Rodg will want to be the highest-paid QB in the league. Rightfully so.
The defense HAS to take a big step forward, and should under first-year coordinator Mike Pettine. Gutekunst, who is WAY more talkative with the media than Thompson (again, doesn't take much. Thompson made the sphinx seem like a chatterbox) needs to give Pettine the defensive tools to be successful. That means a priority of upgrading the pass rush and the defensive backfield. Green Bay had only 37 sacks this year, and opposing quarterbacks had a collective 102.0 passer rating -- absolute worst among NFC defenses. Those statistics HAVE to change.
After seeing their postseason streak come to an end after nine seasons, the pressure will be on Coach Mike McCarthy to get back. And come the 2018 season, Green Bay will be facing a BIG uphill struggle. Let's take a look at why.
First and foremost, the toughest schedule in the NFL, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .539 -- and that includes facing five playoff teams (well, six if you count facing the Minnesota Vikings twice). Road games will be crucial tests with games at the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots as well as New York Jets, Washington Redskins and the three NFC North foes. Granted, the schedule also includes three first-year coaches (Chicago, Detroit, Arizona). But top to bottom, this is not a scheduled filled with "gimme" wins.
The rest of the NFC North teams are all in the top 10 for schedule strength: Detroit tied for second at .535, Chicago and Minnesota tied for eighth at .520. By comparison, the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles are tied for 19th at .492. Coming in dead last among the 32 teams? The Houston Texans at .453.
And the NFC North tests will be big, especially if Minnesota ever settles on a quarterback. At this writing, they have three free agents (Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater) and are kicking the tires on Kirk Cousins. With a solid defense (forgetting what Philly did to them) and solid weapons on offense, any of the four will be capable. Every year I think Detroit will be better than they turn out to be. Here's a club loaded with talent and consistently drafting high, but it never seems to turn up on the field. Perhaps a new coach will bring that out. Ditto for the Chicago Bears.
Will all that on the schedule, how will first-year GM Brian Gutekunst fill out the roster. He has the 14th pick in the NFL Draft among his whopping 12 picks. Gutekunst vows to be more aggressive than Ted Thompson -- wouldn't take much -- when it comes to the free agent market. However, he may be a bit hamstrung with only $15.4 million in cap space available AND a slew of their own free agents to satisfy. There may be a bunch of Packer free agents asked to restructure their contracts: wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, right tackle Bryan Bulaga, outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry.
Of that group, I would definitely look at Nelson and Matthews to resign with more cap-friendly/incentive-laden numbers. Might even toss Cobb into that mix as well.
And don't forget the talk of extending the contract of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has two years left on his current deal (at $20 million a year, a real steal). Once guys like Cousins and Drew Brees sign, you can bet A-Rodg will want to be the highest-paid QB in the league. Rightfully so.
The defense HAS to take a big step forward, and should under first-year coordinator Mike Pettine. Gutekunst, who is WAY more talkative with the media than Thompson (again, doesn't take much. Thompson made the sphinx seem like a chatterbox) needs to give Pettine the defensive tools to be successful. That means a priority of upgrading the pass rush and the defensive backfield. Green Bay had only 37 sacks this year, and opposing quarterbacks had a collective 102.0 passer rating -- absolute worst among NFC defenses. Those statistics HAVE to change.
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