Thursday, March 29, 2018
Opening Day Brings Happiness
It's early this year. No, not talking about Easter but baseball's Opening Day. All of the MLB gets the season going this week, the earliest ever. They need to to try and get World Series wrapped up before the snows fly.
Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing baseball drop from their 162 game schedule to, say, 154. But for owners to give up those games would mean a drop in revenue (or potential revenue) so it probably won't happen. Still, go that route OR go back to scheduling double-headers here and there in order to get the playoffs starting earlier. Wouldn't mind seeing that.
Love Opening Day at Miller Park. This will be the 24th with G-Man, and probably my 30th plus overall.
Milwaukee's Brewers got the state excited last season, pretty much coming out of nowhere to play meaningful baseball late in September. Picked by Sports Illustrated to win, if memory serves, 74 games. This on the heels of a 73-89 record in 2016. I picked them 82-80....and they finished 86-76 and just a game out of the Wild Card.
This year, SI picks the team for second 86-76, nine games behind Cubs and two games out of Wild Card. Las Vegas has Milwaukee at 84 1/2 (meaning you bet the over at 85 or the under at 83). ESPN tabs then as 10th in their MLB rankings, with four NL squads (Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals) ahead of them.
As far as this year's record, I'll be a little more generous and predict the club will be 89-73. While the Brew Crew won't win the division -- those pesky Cubs! -- they will make the playoffs. And finish ahead of the hated St. Louis Cardinals.
Yes, pitching in a BIG Brewer question mark, but isn't that the case for most teams? Milwaukee needs Chase Anderson and Zach Davies to repeat or improve upon, last season. Brent Suter needs to step up, as does Brandon Woodruff, while free-agent addition Jhoulys Chacin will prove to be a good signing. Don't forget Jimmy Nelson is on the mend, and getting him back mid-season will be akin to a trade.
The starters just need to put together at least six quality innings, then turn it over to a very stacked bullpen and All-Star Corey Knebel.
Again, pitching will be crucial. But this Milwaukee club should be able to put runs on on anybody and everybody. The addition of Christian Yelich & Lorenzo Cain improve not only the offense but the defense as well. Continued improvement from Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia will help club. Eric "Old Man River" Thames ran hot-and-cold, but straightened out down the stretch. Domingo Santana gave power, but not necessarily defensive prowess. Can Jonathan Villar get back to his 2016 numbers? Word from Spring Training was he came in with a better approach to the game. Still, I think remains a liability on the base paths unless he starts listening to Manager Craig Counsell. I think the team would be better off playing Eric Sogard.
Odd man out from the outfield is 34-year-old Ryan Braun, starting his 12th season with the big league club. His numbers have been slipping, along with his health. Perhaps limiting him to 100 games (he only played in 104 last year due to various injuries) might help. Not thrilled with the Braun-to-first base experiment -- I think the team is better served getting Jesus Aguilar at-bats instead. But the team can't trade Braun due to that big contract he signed.
The other side of baseball happiness for me is the start of fantasy baseball. I've been a part of, or commissioner of, leagues for 33 years. Was conned into joining by Dan McDonald and the Sports Information Department at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette (now know as Louisiana-Lafayette) in 1985. Fantasy baseball continues to frustrate me, but makes baseball a little more enjoyable -- and gives me the chance to trade trash talk with friends/owners around the country.
Like the others in the league, I hope to uncover that "gem" that the rest of the owners missed and prove my true baseball intellect. This despite the fact that I continue to go without a title: curse you Deric, Bill, Mild Bill, Bartender Doug, Gary, Tyler and Stevie Wonder.
Monday, March 19, 2018
Viking Kirk Pillages Minnesota
So, quarterback Kirk Cousins has ended his very rocky marriage with the Washington Redskins, signing a three-year guaranteed deal for $84 million with the Minnesota Vikings.
You heard right. ALL of his $84 million deal is guaranteed by the hated Purple&Gold. Team going all in for 2018.
My first thoughts on that? Hope he blows a knee on his very first play and the the Vikings are stuck.
No so fast, suggests my sounding board, G-Man. He thinks it would be by far more painful for Minnesota fans if Cousins was just adequate through the three years. Good, but not quite good enough.
Gotta admit, I like that option better.
You heard right. ALL of his $84 million deal is guaranteed by the hated Purple&Gold. Team going all in for 2018.
My first thoughts on that? Hope he blows a knee on his very first play and the the Vikings are stuck.
No so fast, suggests my sounding board, G-Man. He thinks it would be by far more painful for Minnesota fans if Cousins was just adequate through the three years. Good, but not quite good enough.
Gotta admit, I like that option better.
Friday, March 16, 2018
Dear Ethan...
If I could, for a moment, take the time to pen an open letter to Wisconsin's Ethan Happ, it would go something like this.
Hey Ethan!
How's the back these days? You had to carry a whole basketball team this year, you're probably more than a little sore. Hell, at times it probably felt like you were carrying the whole state. That happens when Wisconsin basketball fans are spoiled by 19 straight NCAA Tournament appearances. And you're the lone returning star surrounded by a bunch of youngsters.
So, you're weighing your options, thinking about turning pro. Depends on where you fit into the NBA draft. Trust me, you're NOT a first-round pick. As for second round....well, how many of those make an impact on NBA rosters? Granted, the money is good. But you're not a lock. You're a GOOD college player, solid around the rim. But when it comes to the NBA, are you a 3? No. Are you a 4? No. Are you a liability at the foul line? The Hack-A-Happ works, since trips to the free throw line are more an adventure than a lock.
So unless you like the idea of heading to the NBA G-League, or going to Europe, college is your best option. Your game probably fits in overseas. But you don't have the shot range than a lot of Euro bigs have. Your game needs work, and if the folks in your inner circle are honest with you, that's the advice you'll get.
Come back to Wisconsin for the 2018-2019 season, Ethan. You will lead an improving group of youngsters and provide senior stability. Will you improve your draft status? Yes, if you work on your range. Enjoy college, Ethan. Badger fans will be happy to have you back.
Hey Ethan!
How's the back these days? You had to carry a whole basketball team this year, you're probably more than a little sore. Hell, at times it probably felt like you were carrying the whole state. That happens when Wisconsin basketball fans are spoiled by 19 straight NCAA Tournament appearances. And you're the lone returning star surrounded by a bunch of youngsters.
So, you're weighing your options, thinking about turning pro. Depends on where you fit into the NBA draft. Trust me, you're NOT a first-round pick. As for second round....well, how many of those make an impact on NBA rosters? Granted, the money is good. But you're not a lock. You're a GOOD college player, solid around the rim. But when it comes to the NBA, are you a 3? No. Are you a 4? No. Are you a liability at the foul line? The Hack-A-Happ works, since trips to the free throw line are more an adventure than a lock.
So unless you like the idea of heading to the NBA G-League, or going to Europe, college is your best option. Your game probably fits in overseas. But you don't have the shot range than a lot of Euro bigs have. Your game needs work, and if the folks in your inner circle are honest with you, that's the advice you'll get.
Come back to Wisconsin for the 2018-2019 season, Ethan. You will lead an improving group of youngsters and provide senior stability. Will you improve your draft status? Yes, if you work on your range. Enjoy college, Ethan. Badger fans will be happy to have you back.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Packers Face Uphill Battle In 2018
Here in Wisconsin, the sun rises and sets on the Green Bay Packers. It has for years. On Mondays following a Packer win, everything seems better, right?
After seeing their postseason streak come to an end after nine seasons, the pressure will be on Coach Mike McCarthy to get back. And come the 2018 season, Green Bay will be facing a BIG uphill struggle. Let's take a look at why.
First and foremost, the toughest schedule in the NFL, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .539 -- and that includes facing five playoff teams (well, six if you count facing the Minnesota Vikings twice). Road games will be crucial tests with games at the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots as well as New York Jets, Washington Redskins and the three NFC North foes. Granted, the schedule also includes three first-year coaches (Chicago, Detroit, Arizona). But top to bottom, this is not a scheduled filled with "gimme" wins.
The rest of the NFC North teams are all in the top 10 for schedule strength: Detroit tied for second at .535, Chicago and Minnesota tied for eighth at .520. By comparison, the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles are tied for 19th at .492. Coming in dead last among the 32 teams? The Houston Texans at .453.
And the NFC North tests will be big, especially if Minnesota ever settles on a quarterback. At this writing, they have three free agents (Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater) and are kicking the tires on Kirk Cousins. With a solid defense (forgetting what Philly did to them) and solid weapons on offense, any of the four will be capable. Every year I think Detroit will be better than they turn out to be. Here's a club loaded with talent and consistently drafting high, but it never seems to turn up on the field. Perhaps a new coach will bring that out. Ditto for the Chicago Bears.
Will all that on the schedule, how will first-year GM Brian Gutekunst fill out the roster. He has the 14th pick in the NFL Draft among his whopping 12 picks. Gutekunst vows to be more aggressive than Ted Thompson -- wouldn't take much -- when it comes to the free agent market. However, he may be a bit hamstrung with only $15.4 million in cap space available AND a slew of their own free agents to satisfy. There may be a bunch of Packer free agents asked to restructure their contracts: wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, right tackle Bryan Bulaga, outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry.
Of that group, I would definitely look at Nelson and Matthews to resign with more cap-friendly/incentive-laden numbers. Might even toss Cobb into that mix as well.
And don't forget the talk of extending the contract of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has two years left on his current deal (at $20 million a year, a real steal). Once guys like Cousins and Drew Brees sign, you can bet A-Rodg will want to be the highest-paid QB in the league. Rightfully so.
The defense HAS to take a big step forward, and should under first-year coordinator Mike Pettine. Gutekunst, who is WAY more talkative with the media than Thompson (again, doesn't take much. Thompson made the sphinx seem like a chatterbox) needs to give Pettine the defensive tools to be successful. That means a priority of upgrading the pass rush and the defensive backfield. Green Bay had only 37 sacks this year, and opposing quarterbacks had a collective 102.0 passer rating -- absolute worst among NFC defenses. Those statistics HAVE to change.
After seeing their postseason streak come to an end after nine seasons, the pressure will be on Coach Mike McCarthy to get back. And come the 2018 season, Green Bay will be facing a BIG uphill struggle. Let's take a look at why.
First and foremost, the toughest schedule in the NFL, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .539 -- and that includes facing five playoff teams (well, six if you count facing the Minnesota Vikings twice). Road games will be crucial tests with games at the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots as well as New York Jets, Washington Redskins and the three NFC North foes. Granted, the schedule also includes three first-year coaches (Chicago, Detroit, Arizona). But top to bottom, this is not a scheduled filled with "gimme" wins.
The rest of the NFC North teams are all in the top 10 for schedule strength: Detroit tied for second at .535, Chicago and Minnesota tied for eighth at .520. By comparison, the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles are tied for 19th at .492. Coming in dead last among the 32 teams? The Houston Texans at .453.
And the NFC North tests will be big, especially if Minnesota ever settles on a quarterback. At this writing, they have three free agents (Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater) and are kicking the tires on Kirk Cousins. With a solid defense (forgetting what Philly did to them) and solid weapons on offense, any of the four will be capable. Every year I think Detroit will be better than they turn out to be. Here's a club loaded with talent and consistently drafting high, but it never seems to turn up on the field. Perhaps a new coach will bring that out. Ditto for the Chicago Bears.
Will all that on the schedule, how will first-year GM Brian Gutekunst fill out the roster. He has the 14th pick in the NFL Draft among his whopping 12 picks. Gutekunst vows to be more aggressive than Ted Thompson -- wouldn't take much -- when it comes to the free agent market. However, he may be a bit hamstrung with only $15.4 million in cap space available AND a slew of their own free agents to satisfy. There may be a bunch of Packer free agents asked to restructure their contracts: wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, right tackle Bryan Bulaga, outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry.
Of that group, I would definitely look at Nelson and Matthews to resign with more cap-friendly/incentive-laden numbers. Might even toss Cobb into that mix as well.
And don't forget the talk of extending the contract of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has two years left on his current deal (at $20 million a year, a real steal). Once guys like Cousins and Drew Brees sign, you can bet A-Rodg will want to be the highest-paid QB in the league. Rightfully so.
The defense HAS to take a big step forward, and should under first-year coordinator Mike Pettine. Gutekunst, who is WAY more talkative with the media than Thompson (again, doesn't take much. Thompson made the sphinx seem like a chatterbox) needs to give Pettine the defensive tools to be successful. That means a priority of upgrading the pass rush and the defensive backfield. Green Bay had only 37 sacks this year, and opposing quarterbacks had a collective 102.0 passer rating -- absolute worst among NFC defenses. Those statistics HAVE to change.
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